Summary for Trades Opened : November 2013

This system turned off in early November. It's important to remember that an on/off switch like this is not an attempt to predict the future. It merely keeps you out of the market during protracted down trends and lets you know when to get back in again. Sometimes it is very accurate while, at others, there will be whip-saws.

Chart Courtesy of www.IncredibleCharts.com
Click to enlarge

While in some methods the off signal is used to either bail out completely or tighten stops, that is not the case with my short term method. All it means is that I don't take any new positions.

In this instance I only opened 4 trades for November before the method switched off. The 4 are now all closed while I still have one live trade remaining that opened in October. This is why I am reporting November first.

So, in November

I opened 4 Trades – 2 wins and 2 losses – win rate 50%

Average win 2.29R average Loss 1.16R so win : Loss Ratio of 1.98 : 1

Expectancy 0.57

The October trades haven't been very profitable so far and I don't think the last trade will rescue them, but that is simply how trading works. One should never venture into this arena expecting a nice straight equity curve.

This is the distribution of returns for all trades except the lone open trade.  That trade is mildly in profit at the moment but going nowhere fast.  When it finally closes I will update this

The important thing to note here, is that even though the loss side of the distribution is far more crowded than the profit side, this period is profitable over all.  Trading isn't about picking winners so much as managing losers and leaving the winners alone to do their thing.  This is why trading is simple but it isn't easy.